Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2035 66.2%Leader of 12 outcomes
2035 66.2%Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingDec 23, 24, 4:30 PM UTCJan 11, 36, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Polymarket#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketSecond-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of December?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes based on whether leading news networks refer to what happened as a nationalization or if that language is used by the government.
- Also resolves yes if the US government creates a project which becomes the leading AI lab in the country (at the time when it becomes the leading AI lab).
- Does not resolve yes if the relationship between the government and labs is only similar to that between the government and military contractors.
