By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?
InflationOne-OffUS PoliticsEconomyPolitics10yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 30, 26, 12:08 AM UTCJan 1, 37, 4:59 AM UTC
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PredictItRules
This market asks about a guaranteed income floor, universal or not.
- A negative income tax counts here, unlike in the companion UBI market and the amount ladder.
- Reference person.
- A single, childless, non-disabled US citizen aged 30 who lives in one of the 50 states or DC.
- They have no income, no assets and no work history, and are neither working nor looking for work.
- Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2036 (Eastern Time), federal law as enacted entitles this person, wherever they live in the 50 states or DC, to federal cash benefits worth at least $6,000 in 2026 dollars for some calendar year, summed across all federal programs.
