Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 26, 11:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any UK cabinet ministers resign in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK PM by which date?
PolymarketWho will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOn what dates will Andy Burnham still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham Exit Date - 2026
SmarketsNext General Election - Prime Minister At Poll Opening - Andy Burnham
SmarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between July 23, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any member of the UK Cabinet under Prime Minister Andy Burnham formally resigns from their Cabinet post.
- Cabinet Minister Definition: Any individual officially listed as a member of the Cabinet of the United Kingdom on GOV.UK or widely reported by major media outlets (e.g., BBC, The Guardian, Financial Times) as holding a full Cabinet-level role in the Burnham administration.
- Resignation Definition: The minister must voluntarily step down from their Cabinet post (including resignations in protest, for personal reasons, or when requested/pressured to do so by the Prime Minister, provided a formal resignation is submitted and accepted).
- Being sacked, dismissed, or removed directly by the Prime Minister without resigning first.
- Being reassigned to a different Cabinet role during a reshuffle.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Burnham recieves a cabinet minister resignation in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Burnham recieves a cabinet minister resignation in 2026 resolve?
- Burnham recieves a cabinet minister resignation in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Burnham recieves a cabinet minister resignation in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria