Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 21, 26, 5:17 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to YES if Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) is officially selected as the Senate Majority Leader for the 120th Congress (scheduled to convene on January 3, 2027) following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
- This market will resolve to NO if any of the following occur:
- Senate Democrats do not secure a majority (including via a tie-breaking Democratic Vice President or a formal governing coalition) in the 2026 midterm elections, meaning the party is in the minority and there is no Democratic Senate Majority Leader.
- Senate Democrats win the majority, but another senator (such as Chuck Schumer) is selected as Senate Majority Leader.
- Senator Schatz is elected to a different Senate leadership position (such as Democratic Whip) rather than Senate Majority Leader.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official leadership announcements from the Senate Democratic Caucus or the official leadership directory on the U.S. Senate website (https://www.senate.gov/).
