Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Lula 2 to 3.99% (98.9%)
Resolved: Oct 26, 2026, 1:10 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
Lula 4%+0.1%
Lula 2 to 3.99%98.9%
Lula 0 to 1.99%0.3%
Bolsonaro 0 to 1.99%0.4%
Bolsonaro 2-to 3.99%0.2%
Bolsonaro 4%+0.2%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES according to the official margin of victory for the Brazil Presidential election, with early resolution if the result is obvious.
