AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?
Trade PolicyOne-OffHealth & MedicineChinaEurope13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.5%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 2, 25, 7:29 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that before January 1st 2040 the global innovative drug market has functionally bifurcated into at least two major regional “stacks” (e.g., US/EU as one region, China as another; India may count as a third), such that each region routinely develops and approves distinct, non‑identical, domestically discovered (AI‑assisted) drugs for the same first‑line indications, without a unified global launch.
- Operational criteria (any two of A–C must be met):
- A. Region‑specific analogs: In ≥3 major therapeutic areas (e.g., oncology, metabolic/obesity, autoimmune), ≥2 major regions each have an approved first‑line medicine for the same indication that:
- is a different molecule/biologic (not a generic/biosimilar of the other);
- was discovered/designated AI‑assisted by the sponsor (per regulator filings, company disclosures, or peer‑reviewed sources); and
- remains unapproved in the other region(s) for ≥24 months after the first approval (no global “catch‑up” launch in that window).