Abdul El-Sayed runs behind Jocelyn Benson by which date?
38.9 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection8hManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast3-6 points behind 58.9%+38.9ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+38.9 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 26, 10:06 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan.
- This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
- If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “the named outcome”.
- Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding.
- For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate.
