Current community forecast
Down 5% to 14% 30.4%+12.6ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+12.6 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 15, 25, 11:29 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.
- AI bubbles correction? interest rate cuts?
- Note these are days and hours in which the U.S. market is open, and not any after hours trading, or trading on international markets in different time
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the percentage change of the S&P 500 between the opening price on the first trading day of 2026 and the closing price on the last trading day of 2026.
- Only regular market hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) count; after-hours trading is excluded.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Down 5% to 14% at 30% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? resolve?
- 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.
