Current community forecast
Up 5% to 14% 57.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingDec 15, 25, 11:29 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.
- AI bubbles correction? interest rate cuts?
- Note these are days and hours in which the U.S. market is open, and not any after hours trading, or trading on international markets in different time
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the percentage change of the S&P 500 between the opening price on the first trading day of 2026 and the closing price on the last trading day of 2026.
- Only regular market hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) count; after-hours trading is excluded.
