Current community forecast
Yes 57.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 26, 3:03 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on any trading day from the market's creation date through April 2, 2027, the Nasdaq Composite Index (ticker: ^IXIC) closes at a price that is 15% or more below its highest closing price achieved up to that date (the running all-time high).
- If the Nasdaq Composite does not experience a daily closing drawdown of 15% or more from its running all-time high at any point during this period, the market will resolve to NO.
- Source of Truth: Daily historical closing data from Yahoo Finance ^IXIC or another major financial data provider such as Google Finance.
- Running All-Time High Definition: The highest daily closing price achieved by the Nasdaq Composite in its history up to the trading day in question.
- As of August 2026, the record closing high is 27,093.90 (set on June 2, 2026), meaning a daily close at or below 23,029.81 would trigger a YES.
