Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffAITechEquities2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Aug 3, 26, 2:41 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on any regular trading day from August 4, 2026, through December 31, 2026 (inclusive), the official daily closing price of the Nasdaq Composite Index is at least 15.00% lower than its closing price on August 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Baseline Close ($C_{Aug3}$): The official closing price of the Nasdaq Composite on August 3, 2026.
- Target Price ($T$): $C_{Aug3} \times 0.85$ (rounded to two decimal places).
- Trigger: If the index's closing price on any subsequent trading day within the specified timeframe is less than or equal to $T$.
