Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffAITechEquities3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 26, 2:41 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on any regular trading day from August 4, 2026, through December 31, 2026 (inclusive), the official daily closing price of the Nasdaq Composite Index is at least 15.00% lower than its closing price on August 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Baseline Close ($C_{Aug3}$): The official closing price of the Nasdaq Composite on August 3, 2026.
- Target Price ($T$): $C_{Aug3} \times 0.85$ (rounded to two decimal places).
- Trigger: If the index's closing price on any subsequent trading day within the specified timeframe is less than or equal to $T$.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) resolve?
- Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
