Current community forecast
No 74.6%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 14, 26, 10:47 PM UTCNov 9, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the electoral list led by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) โ contesting as "United Serbia" with Aleksandar Vucic as list holder โ is certified as winning at least 126 of the 250 seats in the National Assembly at the 25 October 2026 snap parliamentary election.
- RESOLUTION SOURCE: the final certified seat allocation published by Serbia's Republic Electoral Commission (RIK, rik.parlament.gov.rs).
- If RIK's final allocation is unavailable, the certified seat totals as reported by Reuters and AP will be used.
- RULES: - 126/250 is an outright majority for that single list ALONE.
- Seats won by separate lists that later join an SNS-led governing coalition do NOT count. - "SNS-led list" = the certified list on which SNS is the largest constituent party and which SNS officially endorses. - If the election is postponed past 31 December 2026, or annulled and re-run, resolves N/A. CONTEXT (14 Sept 2026): SNS took 129/250 seats on 46.75% of the vote in Dec 2023, so an outright majority here needs roughly 46%+ of valid votes.
- The polling disagrees about the sign, not just the size: CRTA (independent election monitor, June, n~2,324) and NSPM both put the student-backed list AHEAD of SNS, around 45-36, while Faktor Plus (Sept, n=1,200) has SNS 47.2 to 31.5.
