KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 38.8% (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
38.8%63%
38.9%5%
39.0%10%
38.7%1%
39.1%1%
Below 38.5%2%
38.6%9%
Above 39.1%3%
38.5%6%
Won
Before close: 99% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 26, 2026?
KalshiWhat will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on Sept. 30?
PredictItWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.