KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Current implied probability
Below 39.6% 92.5%+48.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$256.7K
Liquidity
$166.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingSep 22, 26, 2:01 PM UTCSep 23, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
92.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 39.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.