KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Above 39.9% (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Above 39.9% 90.8%+96.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$255.2K
Liquidity
$133.4K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 19, 26, 2:01 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
Below 39.3%1%
39.9%2%
Above 39.9%99%
39.4%0%
39.5%6%
39.8%0%
39.3%0%
39.6%62%
39.7%0%
90.8%
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiWhat will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on Sept. 23?
PredictItDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 39.3% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.3% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.4% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 20, 2026??
- Kalshi prices Above 39.9% at 91% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 20, 2026? resolve?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 20, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 20, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Trump's RCP approval average is below 39.3% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.