KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
40.1% 37.4%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25.4K
Liquidity
$20.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 20, 26, 2:01 PM UTCSep 21, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 39.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 40.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 40.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 21, 2026??
- Kalshi prices 40.1% at 37% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 21, 2026? resolve?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 21, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 21, 2026.
- How is Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 21, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Trump's RCP approval average is below 39.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.