KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 40.0% (99%)
Resolved: Sep 16, 2026, 5:55 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
40.0% 81.2%+72.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$58K
Liquidity
$45.4K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleSep 15, 26, 2:01 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
40.0%99%
39.8%1%
39.9%11%
Above 40.3%0%
Below 39.7%4%
40.2%9%
39.7%9%
40.3%11%
40.1%13%
81.2%
9%
3.3%
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 39.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 40.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.