KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 38.1% (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 38.1%1%
38.1%92%
38.0%3%
Below 37.5%8%
37.5%26%
37.8%18%
37.9%2%
37.6%24%
37.7%19%
38.1%Won
Before close: 99% ·
Above 38.1%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
38.0%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Below 37.5%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
37.5%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
37.8%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
37.9%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
37.6%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
37.7%Lost
Before close: 1% ·
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KalshiRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
Rules for each outcome
- 38.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 38.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is above 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.0%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 37.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is below 37.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 37.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 37.8%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 37.9%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 37.6%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 37.7%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 37.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.