KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Pete Hegseth 36%-38.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Pete Hegseth 36%-38.0ptMarket quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$564.4
Open interest
$7.8K
Medium open interestSpread
22.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days
Manifold MarketsWill Kash Patel leave office in 2026?
PredictItWill Pete Hegseth leave office in 2026?
PredictItWhen will Trump leave office as President?
Manifold MarketsHow will Trump leave office?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump leave office early?
PredictItRules
If the individual holding the title of Secretary of Defense at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves (not a successor). Officials can leave office through resignation, firing, removal, impeachment and removal, or any other process by which they cease to hold the position. A change in the name of an office, including renaming the Secretary of Defense as the Secretary of War, does not constitute leaving that position. The first official to leave triggers resolution for all markets in the set - the one who left resolves to Yes, all others resolve to No. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.
Rules for each outcome
- Pete Hegseth
- If the individual holding the title of Secretary of Defense at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kash Patel
- If the individual holding the title of Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- If the individual holding the title of Secretary of Health and Human Services at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
