Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 12:44 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 12:43 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketIf Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any of the following three officials officially vacates or ceases to hold their respective office on or before 11:59 PM ET on January 3, 2027 (90 days from October 5, 2026):
- Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)
- Kash Patel (Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)
- This market resolves to NO if all three individuals remain in their respective offices as of the end of this 90-day window.