KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
Yes, 3-6% 4%-5.3ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$64.9K
Liquidity
$29.4K
High liquiditySpread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 108 days ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 9:00 PMApr 21, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Rules
If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls at least 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Yes minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Yes loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Yes minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Yes loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Yes minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Yes wins, or the electoral votes received by Yes minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Yes does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
