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Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 12:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Democrats, 3+ pts 17%
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.4K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 15.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Apr 29, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.2pt19%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+7.2pt54.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-8.0pt43.6%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-3.1pt35.4%
- Édouard Philippe31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Fraud+68.0pt99%
- Transgender+62.0pt99%
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline+55.0pt99%
+36 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.5pt18%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt4%
+39 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+2.0pt86%
- Republican Party-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $557.8K
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- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Florida Governor winner?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Florida Governor margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Democrats, 3+ pts at 17% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Florida Governor margin of victory resolve?
- Florida Governor margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Florida Governor margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.