KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 25 23.8%+12.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$16K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 4:30 PM UTCSep 29, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRules
If Sep 21, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- Daily counts will be evaluated from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
- If Sep 22, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sep 23, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27)?
- Kalshi prices September 25 at 23.8% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27) resolve?
- Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27) is scheduled to resolve on September 29, 2026.
- How is Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Sep 21, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.