KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87%
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 12.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 7:14 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Chuck Edwards win the North Carolina 11th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExChuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill the House censure or reprimand Chuck Edwards in 2026?
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KalshiWill Cory Mills leave the House?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Chuck Edwards leaves as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Chuck EdwardsThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- Chuck Edwards must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms??
- Kalshi prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms? resolve?
- Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will Chuck Edwards leave the House before the midterms? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Chuck Edwards leaves as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.