Current implied probability
Yes 15%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$79
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 17.0%
Spread
13.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 31, 26, 3:00 PMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes15%
Also available on Polymarket
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
0.5%3mo
12%
+0.0%88%
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$81K
24h Vol$112.1
POLYMARKETRules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
- In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
- In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
- Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
- The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
- In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
- In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
- Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
- The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.