KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 10.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jan 31, 26, 3:00 PMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Superior Electoral Court
- The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
- In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
- In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
- Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
- The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 7%. Quotes span about 6 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 7% · 2 venues · 6 pt venue spread
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election??
- Kalshi prices No at 87% as of August 31, 2026.
- When does Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election? resolve?
- Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2027.
- How is Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.