KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 5, 2026, 2:53 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 4 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 4 54%Leader of 6 outcomes
Before Jan 4 54%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$733
Open interest
$733
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 4Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 4, 26, 10:30 PM UTCNov 14, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 4
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will AP call the Mississippi Senate election?
KalshiWill Impostor Dan Sullivan finish third in the Alaska Senate election?
Manifold MarketsAlaska Senate election: number of rounds
KalshiWill the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AP call the NC-03 House election?
KalshiWhich party will win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Associated Press
- The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, or equivalent clear language indicating AP has determined the winner. The phrase "projected to win" alone is insufficient; it must be AP's clear election call. The call must appear on one of AP's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is its primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication. If the call is later retracted, the market resolves to Yes based on the call time. Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 4
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 14
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 11
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 18
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 19
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 26
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
