What are the current odds for Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ??

Futuur prices December 31 at 11% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ? resolve?

Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon by ? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2027.

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Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current implied probability

December 31 11%

Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

$2.2K

Low liquidity

Traders

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Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

This set of markets predicts when Israel will announce that it has withdrawn all of its ground forces from Lebanese territory.

Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes".
A market resolves to "Yes" if Israel publicly announces, on or before the market's deadline, that its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory.
The announcement must refer to a completed withdrawal; an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not qualify.
A “Yes” resolution requires only the announcement of completed withdrawal, and it is not affected by whether some Lebanese territory remains under Israeli control or whether ground incursions by Israeli forces resume afterward.
The Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory for the purposes of this event and is not considered toward resolution.