Current implied probability
Yes 89%
Yes 89%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$18.7
Liquidity
$919.8
Low liquidityTraders
11
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 2035 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2027 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?
Manifold MarketsWhere will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?
Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 65%. The venue spread is about 49 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference 65% · 2 venues · 49 pt venue spread
