Current implied probability
Yes 78%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$904.9
Low liquidityTraders
9
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Rules
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference 47% · 2 venues · 31 pt venue spread
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- Futuur prices Yes at 78% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? resolve?
- Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? settled?
- Futuur settles this market as follows: This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- Where else is Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? listed?
- The same question is also listed on ForecastEx, Manifold Markets.