What are the current odds for Will 2030 be the warmest year on record??

Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of November 5, 2026.

When does Will 2030 be the warmest year on record? resolve?

Will 2030 be the warmest year on record? is scheduled to resolve on January 22, 2030.

How is Will 2030 be the warmest year on record? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA

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Will 2030 be the warmest year on record?

One-OffWeather3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 67%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Jan 12, 24, 4:40 PM UTCJan 22, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA

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Will 2030 be the warmest year on record?

Will 2030 be the warmest year on record?

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Frequently asked questions

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Open markets

Where will it rain on Nov 5, 2026?

Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on November 6?

Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 5, 2026?

Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 5, 2026?