PredictItCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Current implied probability
Yes 80%
Yes 80%Methodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
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Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 16, 26, 3:18 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that James Talarico’s margin in the 2026 general election for Senate in Texas exceeds his margin in the RealClearPolling average for that election, as displayed at 11AM ET on November 3, 2026 (the “Polling Benchmark”).
The Polling Benchmark shall be drawn from the row labeled “RCP Average” in the table available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/texas/talarico-vs-paxton (the “Polling Source”).
The Polling Benchmark shall be drawn from the row labeled “RCP Average” in the table available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/texas/talarico-vs-paxton (the “Polling Source”).
- Any number displayed at the Polling Source other than "RCP Average" shall be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
For a winning candidate, the margin of victory shall be calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and the share of the second-place candidate. - For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between that candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the first-place candidate.
- Should James Talarico be the first-place candidate, his margin shall be positive; should he not be the first-place candidate, his margin shall be negative.
- Margins of error shall not be considered.
Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins as officially certified. - Margins will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
