Current implied probability
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No 100%Methodology
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Updated 2 minutes ago
Oct 27, 26, 1:36 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsRules
This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that the Democratic party candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in ALL of the following states: Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio.
- Democratic candidates winning any subset of these states shall not be sufficient to resolve this market to Yes.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.
Should no candidate receive the share of the vote required by state law to win the 2026 general election outright, and a runoff election is held, this market shall resolve according to the outcome of such runoff election. - Markets may remain open until the runoff results are certified.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
- If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
