This market resolved: Democrats 7.0%-7.4%
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 4, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Dem<4.0%, Tie or GOP 2%Leader of 9 outcomes
Methodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
—
Market data
Updated 17 days ago
StaleProbability Timeline
Dem<4.0%, Tie or GOP2%
Democrats 4.0%-4.4%0%
Democrats 4.5%-4.9%0%
Democrats 5.0%-5.4%0%
Democrats 5.5%-5.9%0%
Democrats 6.0%-6.4%0%
Democrats 6.5%-6.9%0%
Democrats 7.0%-7.4%0%
Democrats ≥ 7.5%0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-8.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman+7.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.3pt34.7%
- Édouard Philippe27.4%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.5%
- Gavin Newsom+2.0pt15.5%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.1M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.2pt32.7%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt4%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.6M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt85.7%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.3%
- Total Vol
- $23.7M
- 24h Vol
- $585.9K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- North Carolina Senate winner?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- What will Trump say during his rally with Darline Graham?
- Trump out as President by August 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will lead in RCP Congressional generic ballot polling for Aug. 4??
- PredictIt prices Dem<4.0%, Tie or GOP at 2% as of August 4, 2026.
- When does Which party will lead in RCP Congressional generic ballot polling for Aug. 4? resolve?
- Which party will lead in RCP Congressional generic ballot polling for Aug. 4? is scheduled to resolve on August 4, 2026.