Will US attack Iran by February 15?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Feb 16, 2024, 7:02 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 147 days ago
StaleJan 22, 24, 11:37 PMFeb 15, 24, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 22 and February 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
- In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US attack Iran by February 15??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of March 31, 2026.
- When does Will US attack Iran by February 15? resolve?
- Will US attack Iran by February 15? is scheduled to resolve on February 15, 2024.
- How is Will US attack Iran by February 15? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 22 and February 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".