PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 98%
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$90.2
Liquidity
$30.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.3% / 2.4%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 10:18 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes2%
Volume trend
$90Jul 225d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.