PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 82.2%-2.0pt
Yes 82.2%-2.0ptMarket quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
78.0% / 87.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 10:44 PM UTCOct 7, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Surigae makes landfall in Japan?
PolymarketHurricane Polo category?
KalshiHow strong will Hurricane Polo be?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Polo (NHC designation EP172026) made landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward.
- If Polo makes landfall more than once, any one qualifying landfall resolves this market to "Yes".
- A report means an explicit statement, in a Tropical Cyclone Update, Public Advisory (including intermediate and special advisories), or Discussion issued for Hurricane Polo, that the center made landfall or moved onshore.
- Landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.