Current implied probability
No 97%+9.4pt
No 97%+9.4ptMarket quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.3% / 3.8%
Spread
2.5 pt
Moderate spreadComments
1
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 7:19 PM UTCOct 6, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year?
KalshiWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) states in its tropical cyclone information that the center of Tropical Storm Surigae (JMA designation T2626; PAGASA local name "Queenie") made landfall on or crossed Japanese land, or publishes for T2626 a "Center position" under an "Analysis" heading whose coordinates fall on Japanese land, by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Either one is sufficient on its own.
- A qualifying Center position counts however briefly the center remains over land, and counts on an island of any size.
- "Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
- "Center position" is the field of that exact name in JMA's tropical cyclone information for T2626, and it is the only coordinate this market reads.