Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 7, 26, 2:58 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by September 30, 2026?
ForecastExWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
ForecastExWill Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii?
PolymarketWill a named tropical cyclone make landfall in Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia between June 1 and November 30?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) records a tropical cyclone at **hurricane intensity** (maximum sustained winds >= 74 mph / 64 kt) making **landfall** on the coastline of the **continental United States** (the 48 contiguous states) at any time from market creation through 2026-09-30 23:59 ET.
- Resolves NO otherwise. **Oracle:** NHC public advisories and, where available, the NHC Tropical Cyclone Report.
- The center of circulation must cross the CONUS coastline while NHC's own advisory carries the system at hurricane intensity.
- A hurricane that weakens to a tropical storm before its center crosses the coast does NOT count.
- Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii and Alaska do NOT count. **Context (not criteria):** As of 2026-08-07 the season has produced two named storms -- Arthur and Bertha, both Gulf-genesis -- and zero hurricanes.
- NOAA's 2026-08-05 update maintained a below-normal outlook: 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, 0-2 majors, with a 75% chance of a below-normal season under a Super El Nino.
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-5.0pt61%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $108K
- 24h Vol
- $103.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above61.7%
- 88° to 89°18.7%
- 86° to 87°13.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $98K
- 24h Vol
- $97.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°57%
- 82° to 83°29%
- 79° or below9.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30K
- 24h Vol
- $29.9K
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Total Vol
- $68.2K
- 24h Vol
- $24.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° to 91°55.6%
- 88° to 89°21.3%
- 92° to 93°14.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25K
- 24h Vol
- $24K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Singapore on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? resolve?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) records a tropical cyclone at **hurricane intensity** (maximum sustained winds >= 74 mph / 64 kt) making **landfall** on the coastline of the **continental United States** (the 48 contiguous states) at any time from market creation through 2026-09-30 23:59 ET.