Current implied probability
Meta 37.5%-12.0ptLeader of 21 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$10.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
23.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-12.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 12:14 AMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
