Current implied probability
Z.ai 90%Leader of 33 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$29K
Liquidity
$60.9K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 3:34 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
- This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public.
- Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
- A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models.
- Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered.
Open markets
AI
GEMINIBTC price on August 24
- $77,500 or above99%
- $77,250 or above97%
- $77,750 or above96%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.1K
- 24h Vol
- $70K
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T+0.2pt98%
+10 more outcomes
GEMINIChelsea vs Fulham
- Chelsea92.7%
- Tie5.9%
- Fulham1.5%
- Total Vol
- $52.2K
- 24h Vol
- $51.8K
POLYMARKETIn which month will Anthropic IPO?
- October 2026+4.0pt76%
- September 2026-0.5pt14.6%
- November 2026-4.8pt4.2%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+0.5pt91%
- October 31,82%
- October 15,+12.0pt59%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.9pt65.4%
- ChatGPT+1.8pt12.5%
- Grok-3.7pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.3M
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Top AI model in August
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Highest temperature in Miami on August 24, 2026?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which company does Ox Alpha belong to??
- Polymarket prices Z.ai at 90% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does Which company does Ox Alpha belong to? resolve?
- Which company does Ox Alpha belong to? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which company does Ox Alpha belong to? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.