KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
claude-opus-5-high 61.7%+9.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$41.2K
Liquidity
$88.1K
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 3, 26, 3:00 PMAug 31, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Aug 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If claude-opus-5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Aug 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AI
GEMINISeattle vs Tennessee
- Seattle50.5%
- Tennessee49.5%
- Total Vol
- $51.8K
- 24h Vol
- $50.2K
POLYMARKETIn which month will Anthropic IPO?
- October 2026-1.0pt68%
- September 2026-2.0pt14%
- November 2026-4.0pt5%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.4K
- 24h Vol
- $39K
GEMINIArthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe
- Arthur Fils99%
- Frances Tiafoe1%
- Total Vol
- $38.4K
- 24h Vol
- $38.4K
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.5pt81%
- October 31-14.5pt57%
- September 30-4.0pt19%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt63.8%
- Grok+5.0pt14.3%
- ChatGPT-1.5pt10.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.3M
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba+0.5pt93%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic IPO by __?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- ZEC price on August 28
- Best AI this week
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- BTC price on August 24
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top AI model in August?
- Kalshi prices claude-opus-5-high at 62% as of August 24, 2026.
- When does Top AI model in August resolve?
- Top AI model in August is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026.
- How is Top AI model in August settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Aug 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.