Current implied probability
No release by August 31 92.1%+4.7ptLeader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
83 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$11.3K
Liquidity
$196.1K
High liquiditySpread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+7.3 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 29, 26, 7:11 PMSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
- Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
