KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Oct 1, 2026 (99%)
Resolved: Sep 28, 2026, 3:48 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2026
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
85%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 28, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Before Sep 30, 202699%
Before Sep 29, 202679%
Before Oct 1, 2026Won
Before Sep 29, 2026Lost
Before Oct 16, 2026Lost
Before Sep 30, 2026Lost
Before Aug 21, 2026Lost
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Before Sep 18, 2026Lost
Before Sep 23, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 14 After issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:SpaceX
- For the purpose of this market, the launch date is the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX