Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
0.3% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 94%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$92.9
Liquidity
$163.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.6% / 1.7%
Spread
6.3%
Moderate spread7d Change
-4.2%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Sep 18, 25, 5:54 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva94%
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General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.