PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 32%-5.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25.4K
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 11:36 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Bahrain through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Bahrain.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
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- Yes-3.0pt12.9%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- October 31-11.5pt49%
- September 30-13.0pt25%
+17 more outcomes
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- August 22100%
- August 25100%
- August 31+1.4pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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- December 31-0.5pt17%
- October 3111%
- September 306%
+9 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027-5.0pt63%
- December-7.0pt46%
- September 30,-4.0pt18%
+8 more outcomes
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- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran target Bahrain by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 30 at 32% as of August 28, 2026.
- When does Will Iran target Bahrain by which date? resolve?
- Will Iran target Bahrain by which date? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Iran target Bahrain by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Bahrain through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).