Current implied probability
Yes 92%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$11.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
91.0% / 93.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
11
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
May 14, 26, 9:51 PM UTCSep 27, 26, 6:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Maura Healey be reelected as Governor of Massachusetts in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNational Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election?
PolymarketFrench Senate Election: 2nd Most Seats?
PolymarketSER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
PolymarketWill Zohran Mamdani be elected and then reelected as mayor of NY?
Manifold MarketsWill Javier Milei be reelected for a second term as the President of Argentina?
Manifold MarketsRules
Senate elections are scheduled to be held in France on September 27, 2026.
- The newly constituted Senate will convene following these elections to elect its President.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gérard Larcher is reelected as President of the Senate (Président du Sénat) following the 2026 French Senate elections.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- To count for resolution, Gérard Larcher must be formally elected as President of the Senate following the 2026 French Senate elections.
- Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.
