PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 99%-0.2ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$24.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.8 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 29, 26, 12:34 AMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
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0%
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
- A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 96% · 2 venues · 1 pt band
- Also available on Limitless — WI-04 House Election Winner · Democratic Party 99%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Jon Ossoff16.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt15.2%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.5M
- 24h Vol
- $987.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro32.4%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt4.9%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+2.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.5M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom15%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt14%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio+0.4pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.7M
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt45.3%
- Marco Rubio-3.0pt21.1%
- Ron DeSantis-0.2pt5.3%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $58.7M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for WI-04 House Election Winner?
- Polymarket prices Democratic Party at 99% as of August 22, 2026.
- When does WI-04 House Election Winner resolve?
- WI-04 House Election Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is WI-04 House Election Winner settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- Where else is WI-04 House Election Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless.