PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
Tucker Carlson 100%+0.3ptLeader of 27 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.2K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+71.5 pts
Market data
Updated 59 days ago
StaleMay 26, 26, 10:36 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Pope Leo XIV9%
Emmanuel Macron16%
Norah O'Donnell1%
Keir Starmer8%
Candace Owens100%
Marjorie Taylor Greene100%
Pam Bondi2%
Melania Trump2%
Zohran Mamdani5%
Jimmy Kimmel20%
Kevin Warsh28%
Megyn Kelly9%
Benjamin Netanyahu100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”).
- Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count.
- Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
- A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
