PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 6:09 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 6:06 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Fool 25%-21.5ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Fool 25%-21.5ptMarket quality
14 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$644.8
Liquidity
$113.1
Low liquidityOpen interest
$65.5
Comments
0
7d Change
-49.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleOct 12, 26, 12:21 AM UTCOct 19, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Probability Timeline
Fool46%
Mexico36%
Sanction36%
Nidal Hasan5%
Putin0%
China100%
Deranged / Derangement100%
Iran100%
Russia100%
War100%
Fool25%
ChinaWon
Deranged / DerangementWon
IranWon
RussiaWon
WarWon
MexicoLost
Before close: 0% ·
Nidal HasanLost
Before close: 0% ·
PutinLost
Before close: 32% ·
RiggedLost
Before close: 0% ·
SanctionLost
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What words or phrases will Trump post on Truth Social in 2026? (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsWill Trump post an image of him as a Hindu deity or priest or Buddha before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump post another religious image deifying himself?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump post an image of himself as the prophet Muhammad?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.
- Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full.
- (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
- Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context.
