Current implied probability
One Nation 71%+1.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.5
Liquidity
$61.6K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 9:36 AM UTCNov 28, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
- If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition.
- Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
- Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Politics
KALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+82.9pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-82.9pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $985.7K
- 24h Vol
- $777.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.5pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $689.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.2M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place?
- Polymarket prices One Nation at 71% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place resolve?
- Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place is scheduled to resolve on November 28, 2026.
- How is Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
- Where else is Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.