PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: June 30
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
June 30 100%+88.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$102.1K
Liquidity
$369.3K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+70.0 pts
Market data
Updated 108 days ago
StaleDec 26, 25, 7:44 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for U.S. strike on Nigeria by which date??
- Polymarket prices June 30 at 100% as of May 16, 2026.
- When does U.S. strike on Nigeria by which date? resolve?
- U.S. strike on Nigeria by which date? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026.
- How is U.S. strike on Nigeria by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.