U.S. strike on Nigeria by which date?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedUnverified resolution data: June 30
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Trends
June 30Awaiting result
December 31Awaiting result
January 31Awaiting result
February 28Awaiting result
March 31Awaiting result
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.