PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedUnverified resolution data: April 30
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Probability Timeline
April 150%
April 30100%
May 150%
May 310%
April 30Awaiting result
April 15Awaiting result
May 15Awaiting result
May 31Awaiting result
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
- Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.