PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: April 30
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
April 30 100%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.8M
Liquidity
$973.6K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+83.3 pts
Market data
Updated 129 days ago
StaleMar 24, 26, 8:58 PMApr 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
April 150%
April 30100%
May 150%
May 310%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.
- Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.